CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY THREAT FACING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2016.
Billionaire investor George Soros had an ominous warning for the world on Thursday: A 2008-style financial crisis is brewing.
The main culprit, in his view, is China. Given
Soros' reputation as a savvy trader and the turmoil in global markets
right now, many investors would be inclined to agree with him.
Chinese stock markets have fallen sharply this week,
plunging more than 7 percent on Monday and Thursday and twice
triggering new so-called circuit-breakers, which are designed to calm investors but have instead sparked a sell-off in financial and commodity markets around the world.
The catalysts were weak manufacturing data and Beijing’s decision to further reduce the value of the yuan to an almost six-year
low, which have deepened concerns about the strength of the world’s
second-largest economy and raised the prospect of a currency war with
other emerging markets.
Markets “are in a panic over what’s happening in
China,” Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research at Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, told The New York Times.
“People are saying, ‘Whoa, growth is way worse than we were expecting this year.’”
Soros suggested the Asian powerhouse was in crisis.
“China has a major adjustment problem,” he told an economic forum on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
“I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at
the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of
the crisis we had in 2008.”
The concerns about China are not new. Since the huge
sell-off in Chinese stocks last summer, investors have been fretting
that Chinese policymakers’ attempts to kick-start economic activity were
not working and that ongoing efforts to devalue the currency were a
sign that Beijing had, to put it bluntly, run out of ideas — and was
willing to risk the wrath of its trade partners in order to boost its
exports.
Given the size of the Chinese economy and its
importance in global trade and investment, investors are rightly worried
about its slowdown.
But if another financial crisis were to erupt this year, China wouldn't be the only trigger.
Here are four other issues that are keeping investors awake at night.
1. US interest rates

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/Agence France-Presse
The Federal Reserve’s decision in December to raise
interest rates for the first time in almost a decade has huge
consequences for the rest of the world, particularly emerging
economies. South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Brazil are on a long list of
countries that have seen their currencies weaken as investors boost
their holdings of dollar-denominated assets to profit from the
relatively higher interest rates in the United States. A stronger dollar
can make their imports more expensive and fuel inflation. Higher
borrowing costs also affect the dollar-denominated loans taken out by
companies by making them more expensive to pay back. “Economic collapse”
in emerging economies is a risk this year, UC Berkeley’s Barry
Eichengreen told the Atlantic.
2. Falling commodity prices

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Crude oil prices are at multi-year lows,
which is great for American car owners who are enjoying cheap gasoline,
but worrying for the global economy. One of the main reasons for the
weakness is a global glut — the world is producing more oil than it can
consume. A slowdown in China’s energy-guzzling economy has eroded
demand, but so has the stronger dollar, which makes commodities priced
in the greenback more expensive for traders using other currencies. OPEC
members' refusal to cut production isn't helping, either. That’s forcing oil producers to slash capital expenditure
and lay off workers. It's also hurting countries that rely heavily on
oil revenues to keep their economies operating, such as Russia and
Mexico.
And it’s not just oil. The price of iron ore, which is a key ingredient in steel, is also trading at its lowest level in years, while the copper price is at a near seven-year low.
More from GlobalPost: Uh oh, copper has fallen to its lowest price since the financial crisis
3. European economic weakness

DANIEL ROLANDAFP/Getty Images
European policymakers are still struggling to get
the euro zone economy back on its feet. Very low inflation persists, and
economic growth has been weak (although there were signs of a pick-up
toward the end of 2015), despite their efforts to revive the region. As
the Federal Reserve tightened interest rates in December — a move that
reflected a strengthening of the US economy — the European Central Bank
was cutting interest rates
and leaving the door open to further monetary policy easing if
required. The latest inflation data for the single currency area, a
lackluster 0.2 percent in December, suggests it will be.
4. Brazilian disaster

Vanderlei AlmeidaAFP/Getty Images
Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, faces a "political and economic disaster," the Economist predicted at the beginning of 2016. As the country prepares to host the Olympic games in August, its economy is sinking deeper into recession, its public finances are in tatters, and the country is wracked by political instability. An ongoing corruption scandal
involving the state-owned oil giant Petrobras and top government
officials is erasing whatever faith Brazilian voters still have in their
leaders. In addition, President Dilma Rousseff is fighting efforts to
have her impeached.
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